How to tell if a recession is coming?
Watch for these 6 indicators to know when a recession could be comingYield curve. One of the most closely watched indicators of an impending recession is the “yield curve.” A yield is simply the interest rate on a bond, or Treasury.Confidence indexes. Even in economics, it matters how people feel. …Employment Data. …The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s recession probability model. …More items…
When is the next recession coming?
With inflation soaring, bond yields climbing, and the Federal Reserve poised to make large interest-rate increases, many economists and investors are worried about the possibility of recession. Fannie Mae economists are among them, predicting “a modest recession in the latter half of 2023.”
Is the next recession really coming?
There’s a 50% chance of recession by 2023, according to Wells Fargo’s head of macro strategy, Michael Schumacher. "There’s not really a great path for the Fed to try and limit recession risk," he …
What will cause the next recession?
The next recession will probably be caused by one of the following (from least likely to most likely): 3) An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability reasons.