How likely is a recession?



How likely is a recession?

A Bloomberg Economics model sees a 38% chance in the same period, with the risks building beyond that time frame. But for many it already feels like it’s here. More than one-third of Americans believe the economy is now in a recession, according to a poll last month by CivicScience.

What is the Bloomberg recession probability model?

The recession probability model developed by Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby and Carl Riccadonna incorporates a range of data spanning economic conditions, financial markets and gauges of underlying stress.

What are the odds of a recession in February?

The surge in the recession probability mainly reflects the shocking jobless claims figures, but plummeting stock prices for much of the month also played a role. The model’s reading on the odds for February came in at 33%.

Will there be a US recession in 2024?

A downturn by the start of 2024, barely even on the radar just a few months ago, is now close to a three-in-four probability, according to the latest estimates by Bloomberg Economics. Suddenly Fragile? Just a few months ago, a US recession in the near future seemed like a long shot. Now it looks hard to avoid